Viking Therapeutics vs. Novo Nordisk vs. Eli Lilly: Who Leads the Oral GLP-1 Weight Loss Race?

 

Viking Therapeutics vs. Novo Nordisk vs. Eli Lilly: Who Leads the Oral GLP-1 Weight Loss Race?

The weight loss drug market is exploding, and all eyes are on the next generation of oral GLP-1 agonists. These medications, which mimic the gut hormone GLP-1 (glucagon-like peptide-1), have shown remarkable results in helping patients lose weight and improve metabolic health. While injectable GLP-1 drugs like Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy (semaglutide) and Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro (tirzepatide) dominate the current market, the race for an effective oral pill is heating up.

Among the contenders, Viking Therapeutics ($VKTX) currently stands out as having the most promising oral GLP-1 candidate—outperforming even pharma giants like Eli Lilly and putting pressure on Novo Nordisk. Let’s dive into the details.

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Why Oral GLP-1 Drugs Matter

Injectable GLP-1 drugs have proven to be life-changing for patients struggling with obesity and type 2 diabetes. However, many patients are hesitant to commit to weekly injections. A once-daily pill could massively expand the market by making GLP-1 therapy more convenient, discreet, and accessible.

This is why oral GLP-1 development is one of the hottest battlegrounds in biotech. Whichever company cracks the code with a safe, effective, and tolerable pill could capture billions in revenue.

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Viking Therapeutics: The Rising Challenger

Viking Therapeutics ($VKTX), a smaller biotech company compared to Novo Nordisk ($NVO) and Eli Lilly ($LLY), has quickly gained attention. Its oral GLP-1 candidate has shown remarkable potency and competitive tolerability in early studies.

• In a 13-week trial, Viking reported discontinuation rates of about 25% at higher doses (60 mg / 90 mg).

• Importantly, this rate came despite Viking’s compound demonstrating greater potency than competing drugs.

• Since the study length was only half the duration of some competitor trials, Viking’s tolerability profile appears promising, especially given the higher efficacy signal.

These results suggest that Viking is not only competitive but may actually be leading in terms of balancing efficacy with side effect management.

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Eli Lilly: The Big Pharma Competition

Eli Lilly, maker of Mounjaro (tirzepatide) and Zepbound for obesity, has also been working on oral GLP-1 formulations. However, so far, Viking’s candidate appears to outperform Lilly’s version in early head-to-head comparisons.

While Lilly has a massive commercial advantage—established infrastructure, brand recognition, and manufacturing scale—data matters. If Viking’s pill continues to deliver better weight loss with manageable side effects, even a biotech newcomer could outshine the giant.

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Novo Nordisk: The Missing Data Problem

Novo Nordisk is the current leader in GLP-1 injectables with Ozempic and Wegovy, and it already markets Rybelsus, the first oral semaglutide for diabetes. However, when it comes to obesity-specific oral GLP-1 pills, Novo faces challenges.

Strangely, Novo Nordisk has not yet published side effect or discontinuation data for its 50 mg obesity pill. This lack of transparency raises questions, especially given the high stakes of this market.

The only somewhat comparable data point comes from a 2017 study of oral semaglutide in diabetic patients:

• In that trial, conducted over 26 weeks, patients on 40 mg had a 26% discontinuation rate.

• Importantly, diabetic patients are generally more tolerant of GLP-1 drugs than obesity patients, since they are accustomed to managing side effects and often motivated by pressing health needs.

This means that real-world tolerability for obese patients could be even worse, making Novo’s silence all the more concerning.

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Comparing Discontinuation Rates: Viking vs. Novo

When looking strictly at discontinuation rates, Viking’s data looks stronger:

• Viking (13 weeks, 60 mg / 90 mg): ~25% discontinuation, with greater potency.

• Novo Nordisk (26 weeks, 40 mg): 26% discontinuation in diabetic patients, who are more resilient to side effects.

In other words, Viking achieved nearly the same discontinuation rate in half the time, with higher doses and stronger weight-loss effects—a significant win.

If Novo’s obesity pill truly had strong tolerability data, analysts argue the company would have released it by now. The absence suggests Viking’s candidate may indeed be the frontrunner.

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What This Means for Investors

The battle for the oral GLP-1 market is not just about science—it’s also about market opportunity. Analysts estimate the global obesity drug market could reach $100 billion annually by 2030, with oral GLP-1s playing a massive role.

• Viking Therapeutics ($VKTX): A potential breakout biotech stock if its candidate continues to show best-in-class results. While it lacks the scale of Novo or Lilly, strong clinical data could make Viking a prime acquisition target.

• Novo Nordisk ($NVO): A market leader under pressure. Without strong oral obesity pill data, it risks losing ground to smaller innovators.

• Eli Lilly ($LLY): Still a heavyweight in injectables, but facing tough competition in oral GLP-1s.

For investors, keeping an eye on Viking’s upcoming trial readouts is critical. Positive data could significantly reprice the stock.

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The Future of Oral GLP-1s

The GLP-1 revolution is far from over. While injectables like Ozempic, Wegovy, and Mounjaro have transformed obesity care, the convenience of a pill could bring millions more patients into treatment.

Viking Therapeutics has emerged as a dark horse in this race, potentially leapfrogging industry giants. If its compound continues to outperform, the company could become a leader in the next wave of obesity treatments.

At the same time, questions remain:

• Will Novo Nordisk finally release transparent side effect data?

• Can Eli Lilly improve the potency of its oral candidate?

• Will Viking’s small size hinder commercialization, or make it an acquisition target?

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Conclusion

The fight for dominance in the oral GLP-1 weight loss market is intensifying. Right now, Viking Therapeutics appears to have the edge, boasting strong potency and competitive tolerability compared to both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly.

With billions of dollars and millions of patients on the line, the stakes couldn’t be higher. Investors, clinicians, and patients alike should keep a close watch—because the company that wins this race may reshape the future of obesity treatment.